The numbers are the numbers. That’s what I always tell people. From one cycle to the next, the demographic numbers don’t change that often, neighborhoods don’t lose their flavor and people tend to go about their lives. Data doesn’t change that much from campaign to campaign….So it makes sense that when I cracked back open the DCCC documents that I received this summer, the Democrats’ “Core Strategies Review” leaves one with the impression that not much changes in these documents either between cycles.
This “Review core P2V Strategies.docx” is the blueprint that Jon Faas (pictured) and DCCC staff uses to review their previous cycle’s strategies, incorporate new numbers, and make minor adjustments. But think about your neighborhood….how often does it really change?
Is this DCCC data stale? Yes, but a sophisticated player could use it as a decent base to build and predict what the Democrats plan to do in each of these districts. Even a relatively novice candidate or activist group can use this information to crudely target and more effectively build a network to advocate for their cause.
Bottom line: people are where they are, and the fact that these documents made it to the public domain could decimate democrats in these races for years to come.
So what’s the process? In general, the DCCC review process begins with a review of the 2016 documents. Then they ask, “is anything new? Do [the models] still hold?” It’s clear from the other documents that they begin to interview candidates in targeted districts, as well as favor some primary candidates over another. If they don’t have a “favored” candidate, they will put them on a tracking plan that’s heavily weighted toward fundraising ability, and documents from District 18 [Taylor CHC Blurb] show they really harass and dismiss candidates who aren’t making their targets!
Finally, they look at how they will take over the campaign. They call this “easing integration,” but they use it to plot a course to potential victory:
- What will the DCCC Investment process be?
- How will we ease integration [of the DCCC initiatives into the candidate’s campaign]?
- What are your expectations for the first 30 days on the ground with your teams?
- What are the [DCCC’s] primary responsibilities and priorities on the ground?
- Is voter registration part of the plan? Why?
- Review of state laws for registration.
- Are there nontraditional delivery options?
- When is DCCC staff going to visit the district? (Trackers!!!)
- What is the core messaging being generated by the campaign thus far and who is it targeted at?
- What do you need from us?
We can look at the targeted list that the DCCC has published to see that these districts line up with last cycle… We even see some of the districts outside of Florida that we got data for on that list, like TX-23 Pete Sessions [tx-23 ev TX-23 – Path to Victory FV – FINAL V2 – 2016.02.22 FL and VA NEW DIST Model Report Distro Data TX-23 gallego old house district TX-23 Table TX-23 Path to Victory FV V2 ], VA-10 Barbara Comstock [va10 split va-10 scratch VA-10 Scores by Precinct FL and VA NEW DIST Model Report Distro Data va10 scratch], and PA-08 Brian Fitzpatrick [pa08 split South Action Items Comined].
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