More on FL-26 – Taddeo Polling Shows Problems

Hello FLA/ August 28, 2016/ Florida Politics, Gossip, News, Politics

One thing we missed in the huge trove of files that was dumped was a series of polls taken in February and March of Likely 2016 General Election Voters in the Florida 26th Congressional District.  I haven’t seen any release of this info so this exclusive peek shows why the party is leaning so heavily on Taddeo, but it also shows she’s not that compelling of a candidate herself.  The seat looks to be safely in Republican hands…

Here you can see the actual post super-tuesday poll, as well as the DCCC write-up, which contains some confusion over the  generic ballot:

We also have a poll done by EMC Research (Job #16-5921), a Telephone Survey of 402 Likely November 2016 Voters in Florida Congressional District 26, Conducted February 5 – 10, 2016.

You can see them side by side on the bottom…

It’s clear why the DCCC sees this seat as a pickup opportunity… 41% of the electorate seems to indicate they would select a generic Democrat over 33% who will pick a generic Republican.

The draft of the write up says that “Among Independents, Taddeo is behind by 10 points (18% to 28%) while Garcia and Curbelo are tied (25% each). Both Democrats trail among Latinos, with Taddeo behind by 16 points (22% to 38%) and Garcia behind by 9 points (27% to 36%). Taddeo and Garcia lose Latino voters age 55 and over by similar margins (-36 points and -34 points respectively), but Taddeo trails by 9 points among younger Latinos (24% to 33%) while Garcia only trails by 1 point (30% to 31%).”

Q5. And if the election for U.S. Congress was held today, who would you vote for?
The Democratic candidate………………………… 41%
The Republican candidate………………………..  33%
Undecided or would vote for someone else… 26%

But when you start getting into the specifics of the race and the actual candidates, we start to see problems…their candidates suck.

Carlos Curbelo is fairly well liked in the district….of those who know him. According to their write-up: “Voters in FL-26 have a favorable view of Curbelo (+16 net, 28% fav, 12% unfav), though 60% cannot rate him. Curbelo earns positive ratings from women (+18 net, 27% fav, 9% unfav) and Democrats (+8 net, 23% fav, 15% unfav).”

Q6. Next, think about Carlos Curbelo.
Favorable view of Carlos Curbelo……………….. 28%
Unfavorable view of Carlos Curbelo………….    12%
Never heard of Curbelo or unsure….………….   60%

Despite running a statewide race for Lt. Governor and serving in the local Democratic Party, absolutely nobody knows who Taddeo is, and those who know who she is have tepid feelings about her.  There is a large pool of unknowns on both sides….

Q7. Next, think about Annette Taddeo.
Favorable view of Anette Taddeo…………..     13%
Unfavorable view of Annette Taddeo…..…..   10%
Never heard of Taddeo or unsure….……           77%

Garcia has the highest name ID of any candidate (47% can rate), but voters have a negative view of him (-10 net, 19% fav, 29% unfav). Only 23% of voters can rate Taddeo (+3 net, 13% fav, 10% unfav).

Q8. Next, think about Joe Garcia
Favorable view of Joe Garcia………………    19%
Unfavorable view of Joe Garcia…..……..     29%
Never heard of Garcia or unsure….……      53%

 

Vote Match Ups:

DCCC

3/23-25/2016

EMC

2/5-10/2016

Taddeo vs. Curbelo:
Democrat Annette Taddeo 26% 34%
Republican Carlos Curbelo 34% 46%
Undecided/Refused 40% 21%
Garcia vs. Curbelo:
Democrat Joe Garcia 31% 38%
Republican Carlos Curbelo 32% 45%
Undecided/Refused 37% 16%
Generic Congressional:
Democratic Candidate 41% 40%
Republican Candidate 33% 36%
Undecided/Refused 26% 24%